Week 5 Thursday Night Football Player Prop Pick: 49ers at Rams
Week 5 TNF Prop Pick
Thursday Night Football features a divisional showdown between the 49ers and Rams (8:15pm ET), and there’s sneaky value in the rushing market.
We’re targeting Brian Robinson Jr. Over 14.5 rushing yards.
Robinson has quietly cleared this line in all four games to start the season:
- Week 1 (@ SEA): 9 carries, 33 yards
- Week 2 (@ NO): 6 carries, 20 yards
- Week 3 (vs. ARI): 2 carries, 22 yards
- Week 4 (vs. JAX): 5 carries, 21 yards
Star running back Christian McCaffrey has logged massive workloads, playing 91% and 85% of snaps over the past two weeks. While he’s capable of carrying the load, he also has an extensive injury history and this game falls on a short week. It makes plenty of sense for Kyle Shanahan to be cautious and avoid overextending him.
The situation is compounded by the 49ers’ injuries on offense: Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and rookie wideout Ricky Pearsall are all ruled out, forcing Mac Jones into the starting QB role. With a backup quarterback and limited weapons, Shanahan is likely to lean on the run game to establish rhythm, control the clock, and limit turnovers.
That’s where Robinson comes in. With Isaac Guerendo primarily contributing on special teams, Robinson has a clear path to meaningful carries as the change-of-pace option behind McCaffrey. Even 3-to-5 touches could be enough for him to clear this modest line, just like he’s done in all four games to start the year.
👉 The combination of McCaffrey’s likely snap management, injuries on offense, and a potential run-heavy game script all point to Robinson being undervalued in this market.
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