Top 3 NFL Week 5 Player Prop Picks
The NFL season is rolling into Week 5, and it’s the perfect time to take advantage of some soft lines in player prop markets. With injuries piling up and roles shifting, there are plenty of opportunities to capitalize before the sportsbooks adjust.
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Now, let’s break down the top three running backs in prime spots to smash their numbers this week.
3. Buccaneers RB Rachaad White Over 22.5 Receiving Yards vs. Seahawks (-120, Bovada)
With Bucky Irving out, both Rachaad White and Sean Tucker are going to see the bulk of the workload at RB for the Bucs. We saw White see some quality third-down work last week against the Eagles (four catches on five targets for 29 yards), but this is a fantastic opportunity for production as a receiver out of the backfield.
The Seahawks have allowed an NFL-high 66.5 receiving yards on an NFL-high 7.25 receptions per game to his position, thus thrusting him into a great spot. Remember – this used to be White’s backfield before Irving came in and stole the workhorse role. This is a spot where he can make a major statement and solidifying himself as a stable third-down pass-catching option for Baker Mayfield, who will still be without top big-play option Mike Evans.
Remember, White was one of just 10 players in NFL history with 10 rushing touchdowns and 10 receiving touchdowns in his first three seasons, so he’s no slouch. He profiles well as a pass-catcher in this spot.
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2. Texans RB Woody Marks Over 71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Ravens (-115, MyBookie)
With Joe Mixon still out and Nick Chubb looking like the aging veteran that he is, Texans rookie RB Woody Marks grades out very well after what was a breakout Week 4 in which he took 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown and caught four passes on five targets for 50 yards and another TD. Playing 11%, 27%, 48% and then 56% of the snaps in consecutive weeks, he has overtaken Nick Chubb as the team’s most dangerous back and now faces the Ravens, who have allowed 116.0 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (5th-worst).
Most notably for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson will be out for this game and he will be joined by four more Pro Bowlers on the sidelines for Baltimore, who also have a number of other impact players questionable. I expect Houston to control possession and rely on the much more explosive guy out of their backfield.
I’ll also add in his receiving yards to cover multiple game scripts. Since the Ravens have allowed the most targets and receptions to opposing RBs, I’m comfortable with it. I won’t be shocked if he goes over this 71.5 number in rushing yards alone.
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1. Lions RB David Montgomery Over 51.5 Rushing Yards vs. Bengals (-145, Bovada)
From one bad defense to the next, I want to pick on the Bengals, who have allowed 123.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, the highest on the slate.
As massive favorites, I expect Detroit to rely on their running game to control things, which should mean a huge output from both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Montgomery has clearly taken the backseat to the younger and more explosive Gibbs, but the veteran has quietly averaged 5.7 yards per carry (4th-best among qualifying RBs) and leads the NFL with 2.5 rush yards over expected per attempt, wildly impressive for seeing eight or more defenders in the box 39.53% of the time, the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
Even though the Bengals have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Jake Browning has not been able to effectively lead their offense and I don’t expect that to change all of a sudden. That should lead to the Lions dictating how this game plays out.
Interestingly, Cincinnati is Montgomery’s hometown and he will have friends and family in attendance. This is the first time Montgomery has played in his hometown and this will also be the first time his sister has seen him play in person after tragically getting paralyzed in a car accident, which adds another layer of emotion.
After a terrible outing (nine carries for 12 yards) in last week’s win over the Browns, I expect a massive bounce-back here and wouldn’t be surprised if Dan Campbell gives him some extra run against the team he used to cheer for as a kid.
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Thank you for reading!
